James Ancell, Head of Futures and Foresight, Joint Data and Analysis Centre, offers practical steps for civil servants to focus more on the longer term
My partner and I are planning a wedding. Being an analyst, I began with a spreadsheet of costs, possible venues, potential guests (colour coded by importance, naturally) and other useful facts. I know now, for example, that the driest day of the year is 15th April, and the one with the most daylight is 21st June.
As I scoured the internet for long-range weather forecasts and seasonal trend data, however, it struck me that I was doing exactly what I tell people not to do at work – trying to predict a single version of the future, especially when looking into something surrounded by so much uncertainty. I therefore set out to develop two completely different planning scenarios: one for our dream garden party in bright blue skies, and another for the traditional British ‘washout’.
Just as our wedding needs a plan that is robust enough to work come rain or sunshine, so policymakers in the UK need more strategies that will stand up to different futures, whatever the political, economic or geo-political ‘weather’.
This article will discuss the UK’s recent record of preparing for the future, consider why it’s so difficult in government to think about the longer term, and put forward some practical things civil servants can do to shift their focus.
A mixed record
At times in the last 80 years the UK has demonstrated a real ability to think ahead, showing the way with free healthcare, setting up the Open University, pushing for more aggressive climate targets, and introducing sometimes unpopular measures such as a smoking ban, automatic pension enrolment and a sugar tax.
Despite this historical strength, in recent years we seem to have slipped. Only 15% of the UK population, for instance, thinks we are spending correctly on climate change, and the Climate Change Committee found “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK”.
Lord O’Donnell, former Cabinet Secretary, told the Covid-19 Inquiry last year that “in hindsight the country was not prepared for a pandemic such as Covid-19”.
And a poll of Cabinet Office senior civil servants in October found 80% said they either thought “too little” about the future or “far too little”. Surveys, inquiries and commentary say the same thing; we just aren’t getting this right. Why?
The challenge of change
The first possible reason is lack of time. In recent years, the country’s focus has been largely on immediate issues – Covid, Brexit, economic recession, wars in Europe and the Middle East, civil unrest, cost of living pressures, the strain on the NHS and political change. The relentless 24-hour news cycle has amplified these concerns, keeping our attention fixed on the urgent rather than the important. But we can’t wait until the storm is over before thinking ahead; we’re going to have to learn both to keep the ship afloat and to set it on the right course.
It’s easy to blame Ministers, and Parliament, of course, but you can’t doubt their intentions. The recent Liaison Committee report recommends that Parliament play a greater role in longer-term thinking, framing this as fundamental to the future of democracy: “the failure to address the long-term issues which affect future generations further undermines their engagement and trust in the political system.” It recommends the creation of a new “Committee for the Future”, strategic training for MPs and “forward looking accountability”.
The Labour Manifesto, meanwhile, outlined several long-term goals and the Prime Minister has described this period as a potential “decade of renewal”. Globally there is also momentum: the UN Declaration on Future Generations was signed by Member States in September, pledging to consider the impacts of decisions today on future generations.
Some might argue that the “political reality” is the public’s shortsightedness, and voters’ obsession with the state of current services. However, the public’s actual attitudes tell a different story. Despite immediate challenges like the cost of living crisis, UK citizens are actually more far-sighted than their international peers with 74% in a recent study agreeing that the Government should treat the needs of future generations equally with the needs of people today, the joint highest (with the Republic of Ireland) of 13 similar countries. Interestingly, though, this public support is undermined by a stark lack of faith in our ability to act – only 25% of the UK have confidence in the UK Government’s ability to deliver on inter-generational fairness (compared to an OECD average of 37%). People want it, they just don’t think the Government can do it.
Earlier this year, the School of International Futures (SOIF), a global non-profit transforming futures for current and next generations, seemed to endorse this shortcoming. In a comparative study of how well 32 governments think about the future, it found that the UK is world-leading in its ability to analyse trends. However, it went on to suggest that the UK is falling behind other OECD countries in two key areas: how government bodies work together to plan for the long-term, and how citizens are involved in discussions about the future. The Liaison Committee reached similar conclusions. As they put it: “over the past quarter of a century there have been incremental improvements to the Government’s capacity for longer-term thinking… no matter how valuable, however, foresight will fail in its purpose if not connected to the decision-making apparatus.”
Five practical steps for embedding long-term thinking
What can civil servants do, and what changes in our behaviour can help us switch more of our attention to the longer term?
Let’s go back to the weather and think about how we naturally engage in forward-thinking in our daily lives. On a Monday morning we check a weather app on our phone, see that rain is forecast for the day (or even the next week), pack an umbrella and stay dry. Research, analysis, action, outcome. It should be similar in government; we pose a question, check evidence, review policy options, and act accordingly. But clearly it’s not that simple and not enough of us are actually doing it.
Perhaps we are too optimistic about the future. Or too risk averse? Is it perhaps because we move roles before they can clearly see the long-term changes? Does the system not sufficiently reward strategic thinking? Do we not know how to do this?
Drawing from both personal experience and professional insights, here are five practical steps designed to encourage action when it comes to long-term policy formulation and decision making.
1. Stay open-minded; the weather may change. Philip Tetlock, author of “Superforecasting,” conducted research on what makes individuals adept at thinking about the future. His findings reveal that a small portion of the population—about 1.5%—exhibits remarkable accuracy in predicting future events, often surpassing experts who have access to more extensive resources. These “superforecasters” share several key traits: they’re willing to change their minds, possess intellectual curiosity, are comfortable with uncertainty, and can see the bigger picture. We don’t need to become experts in prediction. In fact, with high uncertainty and longer timeframes, it often makes sense to plan for multiple scenarios rather than trying in vain to predict one. But there is something in this openness to the future, the ability to consider alternatives, and take time to see the bigger picture that can prove valuable across multiple policy areas. Once we’ve cultivated this open mindset, the next step is to make use of the resources already at our disposal.
2. Use available tools; check several weather apps. There are a number of internal and external reports that civil servants can draw on for this, some public, some internal, some secret. Both the new Global Strategic Trends 7 from the Ministry of Defence and the GoScience Trend Deck are public. The DASH website holds a number of other reports. This is also useful for interdepartmental collaboration and for sharing assumptions about the future. For example, inconsistent policy-making can result from every department having their own independent estimates of economic growth.
Our annual horizon scanning report is produced each December in collaboration with the FCDO, other UK departments and think tanks. This comprehensive analysis identifies emerging issues and trends from around the world, mapping their potential implications for the UK in the year ahead. A full guide to foresight methods can be found in the Government Office for Science Futures Toolkit.
3. Collaborate widely; consult other meteorologists. Tools and data are not enough. The complexity of future challenges demands that we break out of our departmental silos and engage with diverse perspectives. Just as meteorologists combine multiple data sources and expert opinions to improve their forecasts, we need to broaden our collaborative approach.
Look for compounding impacts, where the same group or sector faces multiple simultaneous challenges. For instance, older people might be affected by climate change, with more frequent heatwaves increasing their risk of heat stroke. Simultaneously, they could face healthcare pressures like longer wait times and staff shortages, economic instability affecting their pensions and technological shifts leading to digital exclusion. These overlapping effects compound their vulnerability, creating a more complex challenge than each issue would pose individually.
Through this collaboration, patterns begin to emerge. Some factors remain relatively stable across different scenarios and expert opinions, while others vary widely. Understanding this distinction is crucial for effective long-term planning.
4. Start with the constants, but watch the weather patterns. As Jeff Bezos noted, ‘You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.’ In government, these stable issues with a strong evidence base might include climate change, ageing populations and resource competition. Less certain are the distribution of world power, the UK’s ability to harness technology, and rates of global conflict.
Many short-term issues facing the UK are really just presentations of significant drivers of change, tremors warning of seismic shifts. When protests in the summer of 2024 erupted over online misinformation, they weren’t just about social media – they raised questions about deeper trends including inequality, immigration, community cohesion and technological regulation. Often these long-term “chronic” trends manifest as “acute” crises, sometimes too late to do anything about.
This dual focus – on both constants and their manifestations – helps government transition to a longer-term vision in two ways. First, humans are more willing to embrace change when reminded of what’s certain and will stay the same. Second, by consistently drawing connections between immediate events and underlying trends, we can show how addressing today’s challenges contributes to long-term goals, making the future more relatable and actionable.
5. Act; pack the umbrella. But identifying constants and trends, while necessary, isn’t sufficient. The ultimate test of our foresight work isn’t in the quality of our analysis, but in our willingness and ability to take meaningful action based on what we learn. All the discussion and analysis is in vain, if no action is taken. I suspect many readers won’t hold big budgets, but there are many other ways to act. From choosing which skills to prioritise in your next recruitment round, to building future considerations into your team’s templates and guidance. Try dedicating ten minutes in team meetings to horizon scanning, keeping live documents about long-term trends, or building informal networks across departments to share insights. Even small actions, like including a “future implications” section in your briefings, can seed longer-term thinking throughout the system. It’s also about the everyday decisions that slowly shift our collective mindset from reacting to anticipating, from weather-watching to climate planning.
Conclusion
The pieces are all in place for the UK to reclaim its position as a leader in long-term thinking. The public wants it, Parliament is calling for it, Ministers see the need, and civil servants have the tools. What’s required now isn’t more analysis or better processes – it’s the courage to act in the face of uncertainty, to make informed decisions even when we can’t predict every outcome.
This moment – with a new government, growing public demand for long-term solutions, and increasing recognition of future challenges – presents a rare window of opportunity. But like a perfect wedding date with good weather forecasts and venue availability, these moments don’t last forever. The next crisis is coming, whether it’s environmental, technological, geopolitical or something we haven’t yet imagined. We can either start preparing now, building our capacity for foresight and strategic action across government, or we can wait until we’re forced to react.
As for me, I’m going to take my own advice about acting despite uncertainty. I’ve analysed the weather patterns, consulted the experts (my future in-laws), and built some contingency plans. But at some point, you just have to pick a date and hope for the best. The same is true for government – we can’t wait for perfect certainty before we act. The future is coming, rain or shine.
James Ancell, Head of Futures and Foresight, Joint Data and Analysis Centre.
